Asean Needs to Prepare for Potential Fallout from China-Taiwan Tensions

Jakarta, VIVA – Tensions between China and Taiwan are closely related to the national interests of Indonesia and the other member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The situation in the Taiwan Strait will open the door to superpower competition, which will inevitably have certain impacts on Southeast Asia.

On the other hand, if the conflict in the region intensifies, it’s very likely that factions will form within Asean. Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar may support China, while Vietnam and the Philippines are likely to oppose China, with Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand remaining uncertain.

Economically, Asean countries need to consider the approximately 700,000 Asean citizens currently working or studying in Taiwan. Notably, 300,000 of these migrants are from Indonesia.

Indonesian academic Ratih Kabinawa, based in Australia and Taiwan, highlighted the incident of the Taiwanese fishing boat being seized by the Chinese Coast Guard as a clear example of why the tension between China and Taiwan is an issue that Indonesia and other Asean countries must pay attention to.

"Three of the crew members of the fishing boat are Indonesian. This necessitates Indonesia to communicate with both China and Taiwan to ensure their safety," she said during an academic discussion with the Indonesian Sinology Forum (FSI) at Paramadina University in Jakarta.

Therefore, Kabinawa considers it very important for Asean countries to take further steps to ensure stability in the Taiwan Strait region.

Kabinawa also emphasized the importance of Asean countries continuing to call for a ban on the use of military force in resolving issues in the Taiwan Strait and for the governments of ASEAN countries to consider measures to protect their citizens in the event of armed conflict.

Similarly, FSI Chairman Johanes Herlijanto stressed the importance of Asean consistently voicing concerns over the China-Taiwan issue.

Herlijanto also believes that each Asean country should individually support each other in showing a firm rejection of any party that tends to escalate tensions, especially by engaging in aggressive military maneuvers.

"Both Asean as an organization and each ASEAN country individually need to consistently voice their opposition to the use of military force to resolve the issue between China and Taiwan," he stated.